Does anybody have advice on getting GMs quickly on yahoo? Need one more person before the draft tomorrow.
2021.10.16 19:48 Phantom-thiez Does anybody have advice on getting GMs quickly on yahoo? Need one more person before the draft tomorrow.
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2021.10.16 19:48 DonXander_ Melodic Drill Type Beat 2021 | "Manson" | Prod. Xander
2021.10.16 19:48 Creepermemes2 Mojang didn’t create a new golem so I did
2021.10.16 19:48 AutoModerator Happy Cakeday, r/nsfl_people! Today you're 6
Let's look back at some memorable moments and interesting insights from last year.
Your top 1 posts:
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2021.10.16 19:48 Silver_Somewhere3396 New Members Intro
If you’re new to the community, introduce yourself!
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2021.10.16 19:48 ShadowSV-U1 Self-promotion Thread
Use this thread to promote yourself and/or your work!
(Descriptions of fictional crimes investigated by the story's main Character Max.)
It's august of 2008.....
Max is a detective living in Chicago He checks his pistol and puts on his police badge as he walks out his front door.
He has been searching for a serial killer known as the Caller for years and always been one step behind due to the red tape.....
More importantly the chief's lazy attitude towards getting search warrants and actions approved by the courts for raids. Twice Max had good intel on the suspect's locations and photo evidence showing him at the sites.
The department needs more vigilant, caring officers and leaders but no one steps up to do it, instead they just complain about the slow progress and officers. And hinder investigations.
Now Max has decided that it might be time to stop playing by the rules and catch this scumbag.... .... ....
Starting his car Max sets his GPS to the address that "The Caller" was last seen and pulls out of his driveway as the 50 miles of directions pop up.
The killer's nickname being for his signature of calling in as he is committing the crime.
As he drives he remembers his first case, five years ago now..... ..... .....
A woman, Joane Taylor, was found dead in an alleyway after going out for the night. She showed no signs of struggle leading the police to believe she had drank to much and expired from alcohol poisoning.... ...
The death was written off as a "party gone wrong".... That is until several more were found and the coroner decided on a whim to test for other substances.
Once it came out that the deaths were possible murders...
The calls started coming in, almost like the suspect wanted credit before revealing himself....
Then ways of the deaths began changing as the Serial Killer explored his twisted desires searching for his preferred method.
The last case being a young woman found stuffed in a dumpster after the killer apparently got scared off.... Max will never forget it.... .... ....
The GPS finishes and the car beeps its final direction, taking an exit off the highway. Ramps out here are always confusing... Which is funny since he has driven this one for five years now...
The chief says he should sit this one out but he can't... The latest victim 3 months ago.
Marie Spelner, a waitress out on her smoke break talking to her spouse on the phone.
Survived by her husband, no children or living relatives. ....
Max Spelner turns into the driveway of the house he was directed to... Stepping out of the car he walks up and knocks on the door. Looking at the house he knows the family must be doing well if they live here.... Raising his hand to knock again he hears a scream from inside....
A second later the door is answered by a middle aged butler holding a tray with wine glasses on it... "Hello Sir, I'm sorry but this house does not wish to partake in any offers at this time..."
Max calmly says. "I'm not selling anything."
The butler looks confused for a moment before his eyes dart over Max's shoulder seeing his unmarked cruiser and he nods.
Looking past the butler Max sees that a woman is cleaning up after their dog.
"Have you seen this man?" Says Max holds up a picture of the one suspected of being the killer.
The butler gives it a once over before replying. "I'm sorry sir, no I have not." His tone sounds like he is lying... ....
"Are you sure?" The detective asks.
"I would not lie about something like that, sir." He states, his eyes not meeting Max's.
The woman calls from inside "Fletcher, who are you talking too?"
"Some man asking about a killer" he calls back.
"The killer is an inside job!" The woman quickly states.
"What?!" Max says.
"The Killer, it's an inside job." She says again, louder this time. In the same Max also hears a child begin to cry in another room.
"We should start from the beginning, it will be easier to explain trust me." The woman says.
'She seems to know what is going on....
"How do I know your story holds water?" He asks out loud.
"Oh I wouldn't lie. I have been following the case myself and it seems like an inside job to me." She states, somehow sounding hurt.
"Is there anyone else in the house besides you two and the baby?" He asks noticing the baby isn't crying anymore.
"Just Fletcher and I live here, the baby is my cousins but he just stays the night sometimes." She replies.
Max draws his gun and enters the house upon reasonable suspicion of an emergency in progress or suspect on the premisses as the man seems to be deceiving.
While the woman still seems unconcerned that the child is now silent.
He pushes past the butler and rushes towards the area he heard the crying. passes the entryway, the dinning room, and a kitchen before finally finding a child in a playpen.
"There there..." He says in a sing song voice picking up the child. "I'm officer Max, do you know where your mommy is?"
The child just cries louder.
Then he sees the man from the photo walk out of the bathroom, upon seeing him he bolts for the door and Max sets the child down gently then gives chase.
He runs through the house, following the man as he can hear the woman screaming at him to stop but he doesn't."
"Stop or I'll shoot." The man doesn't even break stride.
Instead he runs out of the front door and jumps into his car.
Furious that the man might escape he fires at the car as it drives away.
The back window shatters and he hopes he got his tire, but he doesn't wait to find out as he runs to his car and initiates a pursuit....
He flips on his concealed lights in his cruiser as he reverses down the drive and into the street.
The suspects car is fast but he manages to keep up with it weaving in and out of traffic as people move over for the siren.
As they approach a red light there is heavy traffic in the intersection..... ....
The suspect slams on his brakes and Max's cruiser only just stops short of hitting it. Jumping out the Detective points his firearm at the vehicle running up beside seeing heavily tinted windows.
"Get out of the car and on the ground now!!" He shouts as he moves to the driver's side door.
After seeing no response....
Max throws open the door and the driver is gone with the passenger side open.
He quickly runs to the other side catching the man trying to sneak off tackling him to the ground and then takes his arms putting them behind his back.
Max grabs his radio and calls it in as the man cries.
As he is waiting he hears a noise that sounds like static.....
"Wrong guy moron.. Did you ever stop to think I wanted you close for this one. That I planned everything...Even framing the pothead..... I almost lost interest until you pulled in the driveway... The attic is kinda cramped tho... I think I'll go carve some meat. Maybe graduate to other things to. I'm not sure yet. Lets see if you can catch me before......" A familiar voice says over the radio then cuts off... ...
Max looks at the man on the ground. "Why did you run from me?" He asks.
"Cause I have like 19 grams of marijuana in my pocket." He replies...
"Do you know how stupid that is?! I don't care about that I'm looking for a killer."
Before he can answer Max hears the woman from the house screaming for her life and a child's cries on his radio.
Then from below Max. "He's in the house, he's in the house! My mom and the baby!" The man on the ground says crying.
Max uncuffs him and runs to his car heading back to the house as he lays down rubber on the road... ... ...
As he approaches and pulls into the driveway he notices the front door is open.
"Hold on I'm coming!" Max screams jumping out of his cruiser...
He runs into the house finding the woman's body arriving too late. Moving over to her he checks for a pulse but she is gone, a large gash in her neck.
As he stands up he slips in a fluid but gains his balance and tries not to think about what it is....
He rushes to the room the baby was in finding the play pen empty. He leaves the room searching the rest of the house and still doesn't find the child.
"Where are you!!!" He calls out....
"This is the Callers first kidnapping and the media would eat up the fact I failed to stop the man." He thinks as he blames himself.
Sirens begin to blare in the distance as backup is about to arrive... ... ...
"There's a woman dead and a baby missing! The woman is in the dinning room straight ahead of the front door, Hurry!" He yells into his radio...
Looking over at the mother seeing a piece of paper on the floor.
He walks over to it seeing writing.
"So close... Looks like I'm a kidnapper now.... Good luck finding me.... And... I so enjoyed killing that sweet wife of yours. Might do it that way again. Not to the kid tho....later Max. Ps. This game is so fun.." It says.
"He was here..." Is all he can muster as the team enters.
"He was right in this house and I missed it because her son freaked over weed and ran..." He says as another officer speaks to him gently.
"Don't beat yourself up Detective, it's not your fault. He must have hid before you got her and left after you arrived." The words do little to comfort him "First day back on the job and the killer escaped taking a child..." He says as he walks away.
The chief arrives in his new lexus with a screeching of rubber as he lurches to a halt.
He quickly exits and leaves his door hanging open as he rushes into Max's face....
"I told you to stay away from this case MAX!!!!....(takes a breath)...
"If I catch any flak from my superiors, I won't suspend you.... That'd be to easy. Desk duty and an entry level demotion. The new guy will have a higher rank than you if things go my way.... Now get outta my sight...". "(Sighs)...
"This job is gonna be the death of me..." He says walking away from Max and towards the Coroner's van..... ..... .....
On the way home the detective stops by the store close to his house which is unlike him because he usually follows the same routine.
He nears the front door and he hears a kitchen timer ding loudly from behind him as his car explodes throwing him through the storefront windows as they are blown out..... .....
Alarms around the lot and others nearby create a cacophony of noise. His head pounding as his body aches, Max pushes himself up and collapses as the store manager runs over to him telling him not to move as he dials 911.... .... ....
Waking in the hospital Max recalls the feeling of the Shockwave as he flinches in phantom pain.
"Who woulda thought its like holding a ringing metal bat that hurts your hands but all over and way more intense." He thinks.
He suddenly feels tired and falls asleep.... .... .... ....
The next time he wakes, he sees a breaking news story that Jane Saltani is reporting on....
"Young toddler Accidently Shoots Serial killekidnapper ending his life and Alerting residents in the Area." The news anchor says.
Sighing to himself Max thinks about how crazy that is and laughs.
Tho he really wanted to bring the guy in. He closes his eyes to get some much needed sleep as his door opens.
Max looks up to see a man with a silenced pistol pointed at him.
"Hm. Now they think I'm dead. Funny how they just assume they got the right guy. Just like.... You did Detect... ....." Max hears but then hears no more as his end comes at just over the speed of sound....
The Caller leaves the hair of another intelligent convicted murderer that he obtained in a spot that's believable and quickly leaves.....
He disables the surveillance system and sends a virus out to any device that has received video data from the hospital.
Erasing and corrupting the systems. Leaving a master hackers finger prints on a glass from his home....
"Sorry, no witnesses." He says to the security guard as he fires... ..... ..... .... ....
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2021.10.16 19:48 AnnaGorlos Multi-function: You can not only use it to squeeze toothpaste but also use it to squeeze cream tube, cleansing foam or other items. Reuseable. Virtually unbreakable. The tube squeezer works wellfor tubes of width less than 2 inches, works best on aluminum / plastic tubes.
2021.10.16 19:48 Morgan-992 Uniquely foldable for easy transportation and space-saving storage. PE and PP material used, other harmful substances free. Nonslip base prevents slipping and sliding design. Use in the bathtub at home or traveling - never leave little one unattended.
2021.10.16 19:48 Morgan-992 Bath Massage Pad Made with the highest quality materials, powerful suction. Perfect for your feet, promotes foot circulation Durable and easy to use, hang it up and let it air dry. Generous amount of cleaning bristles, long and soft enough to comfortably clean your feet. Suitable for man that always
2021.10.16 19:48 andrewwebb1234 Binance Enter Referral Code
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2021.10.16 19:48 Quintenweis how to play slightly hard to get without losing her to other guys
Hey everyone, there is this girl in my class ( we are both 18) and i really like here , she just moved to our city and by coincidance she lives very close to me We have been biking to school together occasionally for the past month, i really thought she was giving me signs that she liked me so a couple lf days ago i askes if she wanted to work on a school project together sometime but she said she needed to check her schedule since she wss moving, than later that day i texted her if she had the same starting time as me for the next school day so maybe we could bike together but she left my message on delivered for almost 2 days now, so maybe i have been to available , i think maybe it is a good idea to play a little more hard to get but i also do not want her to lose interest if she had any Any tips?
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2021.10.16 19:48 KADENGAMES125 It’s a good mob, but is it really better than the golem?
2021.10.16 19:48 bland_cheesecake What game in 'Squid Game' are you most convinced you'd win and why?
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2021.10.16 19:48 Fubwhf Since when have the characters had Act 5 voicelines?
Just popped into Oriath at the start of Act 5 and hear the Templar's new voice line. Did I miss this this patch? I'm jsut levelling a character to test some stuff for Scourge, but I'm actually really looking forward to it if this is for all the acts. Thanks GGG for finally getting this taken care of after how many years.
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2021.10.16 19:48 General-Stryker Jack London, on Scabs
2021.10.16 19:48 Zeebo07 I made a working mirror in Minecraft!
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2021.10.16 19:48 -OP_pls- all aboard the Iowa bandwagon
2021.10.16 19:48 Charmy_LaLaaa [Media] Rem Resin Statue 💙
2021.10.16 19:48 goat-stealer Beyond Skyrim:Cyrodiil questions.
- Once it comes out, will we be able to carry our progress in Bruma over or not?
- Will it feature Adoring Fan followers for us to enjoy/yeet off of cliffs?
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2021.10.16 19:48 Sad-Pie7048 If they ever add The Powder in game, he needs to be a tech champion and have a synergy with Miles Morales and Kingpin. How would you guys think he will play?
2021.10.16 19:48 NxMaGiiCz [Xbox][Pricecheck] Aviator Black Alchemists, Playmaker Black Diecis, Aviator Black Tunicas, Tactician Black Zombas
Hey everyone, haven't been on here in a while, hope everyone is well. Would be great to know the rough prices for these. I'm looking to acquire some certified black OEMs if you happen to know the price of these too, please let me know. Thanks :)
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2021.10.16 19:48 ATCOSTTEHMEMER Issue (Boss spoilers)
Recently beat chapter 2. Also found the first step to reach Spamton Neo. When I try to enter the computer lab, it tells me I can’t. I’m stuck at the section where I go back to Toriel’s house to begin the end scene.
How do I fix this? I already beat it once, and it put me in my last save (my castle town, BEFORE I go to the house!)
I don’t want to make a new save and replay the entire game. Help appreciated.
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2021.10.16 19:48 TrifBoi Here's how my parents fucked my life over in less than 3 months
Ok, so, i had to unwillingly move at end of June,and by July i was fully living with parents in this old farm house which is like 4 km from any civilization and about 30/40 mins by car by this bigger town where I have highschool.
Apart from being away from a home I've lived in for 17 years,which,in retrospect was fucking awesome with the bus stop being 7 minutes away and the town about 40.
The farm house is very run down,so we had to fix roof and now we're building rooms etc.
I lost all my friend and the high school here fucking sucks. The IT seminar which i wanted to attend is full,so i have fucking geography, social studies and English as seminars- therefore the IT school i wanted to study at my old place is no longer an option i guess. My class is full of dumb people, the vast majority of the teachers are old af,looking like they experienced the 1948 February communist revolution( Czech history pun).
Every day i go most of the day thinking how great my life at my old house was so awesome,not having to work my ass off every minute of free time i got on this god forsaken house, having friends just 40 minutes away by bus and being in this great school, which i had the chance to attend over long distance, but i was dumb and I thought I wouldn't do it since I'm graduating next school year.
I really tough bout just saying fuck it and moving out at end of July when I turned 18, but i didn't want to be a dick and leave all the work to my parents.
Fuck my life, fuck my parents and this fucking place, and y'all, the rest, have a good evening and thanks for reading this clusterfuck of a post.
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2021.10.16 19:48 Hopeful_Cantaloupe_9 Day 14
13 years old here, started at 12 and used to do it daily. Its actually really hard i just try to do anything else when I think about it
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2021.10.16 19:48 griljedi (Spoiler Mains) The Problem of King's Landing "Martels, Tyrels and Lannisters"
While I try to predict what might happen in the books; I try to progress not only through foreshadowing and signs, but also by deducing the general mathematics of the story. After all, there can be story-character development without foreshadowing, but it is not possible to develop only with foreshadowing without story mathematics. That was one of the things that was most criticized for GoT's Dany finale, foreshadowing is not character development. Of course, in a story like ASOIAF, if there are no signs such as foreshadowing, predicting something with story mathematics – in my opinion – gets a little harder, with FS our work gets a little easier.
But for me, it's really hard to predict what's going to happen in KL in book 6. Yes, I know many readers have precise estimates, but I see many possibilities that depend on too many
variables. The author can advance the story through all these possibilities that I can see, however he desires. I wanted to refer these possibilities and talk about the events that will happens over King's Landing. So what I'm going to tell you here are things that I think are possible rather than things that I think will be certain in the 6th book.
First, let's write down the exact information in a corner.
Now let's move on to the possibilities.
- According to the prophecy, all three of Cersei's children will sit on the throne and then die. A queen more beautiful and younger than Cersei will take away everything she holds dear, and later the valonqar will come and strangle Cersei to death.
- Tommen will die at some point in book 6 (possibly from Tyene Sand's poison, in the case of a cat scratched thing), and his older sister Myrcella will begin to reign as queen.
- Myrcella is engaged to Doran's youngest son, and the engagement (especially between royal households) can't be canceled just because you want it, so Cersei wanted to put the blame on Tyrion by plotting to kill the boy. In other words, I think that this "engagement" factor has to act like Chekhov's weapon and serve its purpose. Martin had mentioned that there would be a wedding in the new book.
- There is a long-standing animosity between the Martellers and the Tyrells, and according to Martin, one of the factors that prevented Doran from joining Renly was the Tyrell influence. So probably Doran didn't want to participate in the game of thrones where a Tyrell is queen. The enmity between these two families is also a Chekhov weapon, in my opinion.
- The only factor that keeps the Lannister - Tyrell alliance alive is the "marriage" bond, so when this bond is broken, this alliance will also be broken. In that case, Tommen's death is something that will shatter this alliance, but there are possibilities for this alliance to continue or evolve to other points, it all depends on what variable comes in.
- House Tyrell currently holds power, Lord Tyrell now is the king's hand and dominant power in the council, however the presence of sand snakes will trigger the conflict and (seems) at the end of the game the Tyrells will have to lose their power (tommen).
- Doran sent his son and daughter to the dragons(Dany and FAegon), he hoped for Quentyn'nin marriage and Dany's dragons, but his son died and the way and circumstances of his death probably ruined the alliance between Doran and Dany.
- Myrcella is on her way to KL now.
- A pretender claiming to be Aegon Targaryen has appeared and has taken over the storm lands. Arianne Martell also goes there to confirm the identity of both his and Jon Conn. If the message is "dragon", Dorne will go to war, but if the message is "war" they will not make a move(Because Doran Martell wouldn't get into a battle he wasn't sure he would win.). The Tyrells are sending their army here too, so we'll probably see the Tyrells attack Storm's End for the 3rd time. I don't know if they will succeed in the 3rd now!?
There is talk of Aegon Targaryen ascending the throne as king in book 6, and Dorne will naturally support him because he is Doran's nephew. The first thing that pushes people to this thought is that Dance 2 will happen. In the First Dance, a prince named Aegon sat on the iron throne and war broke out for this reason. Well, this boy's name is Aegon, too, then he should sit on the iron throne, but the other queen's name isn't Rae, it's Dany! I don't know, have you noticed my trope? I find it unhealthy to make such an inference based on the name alone, because while it works for one character, it doesn't for another. How then can we accept this as a sign?
I'm not saying there will never be a war between the two, but I don't think Aegon needs to sit on the throne for the 2nd Dance. After all, Dany will never, ever want to be a sidekick queen, Aegon in any case - in his claimed identity - sits in front of her in succession as king on the throne, and any person who is his wife has to be 2nd person. Why would Dany accept such a thing with the power she had beyond all the pain and cost? Personally, I wouldn't want to accept it. Aegon also would refuses to be a sidekick king.
According to me, Euron will poison her as the devil on Dany's shoulder anyway... I believe these two will make an alliance, Euron is trying to break up Westeros for Dany anyway, he will gift her because he wants to marry her. Euron, Ice or Fire?
If you remember my theory. So confrontation and enmity between Aegon and Dany seem inevitable. For this reason, it is not the right move to force Aegon to sit on the throne for the civil war, there is already an important obstacle in my opinion: Cersei's prophecy.
According to this prophecy, Cersei's three children will also rule. We don't know when Tommen will die in book 6, but assuming he dies halfway through the book at the latest, we will see Myrcella crowned queen. This is exact information,
it's not theory.
Naturally, we have to read the effect of this, which is a process that will go up to the 7th book. Otherwise, to put her on the throne and kill her in a few days - just to make the prophecy come true - is a very clumsy move and GRRM is not a novice writer. So it doesn't make sense for the throne to change hands so quickly, two or three times in a single book.
If it's Cersei's queen, Dany, they don't seem likely to come face-to-face before book 7 (but to me, the #1 candidate is Myrcella; she's both younger and just as beautiful as her mother, which we can consider more beautiful now that we've seen Cersei getting older, she is mother's daughter after all) .
There are those who say that Aegon will marries Arienne so that she becomes the queen
, but the aforementioned queen must take everything from Cersei, what can a sidekick queen take from Cersei? What will Arienne take from Cersei? Will she automatically get all the things she holds dear when she marries Aegon? Of course no. Will she kill her children? She can't do that, she's feeling guilty even over the Myrcella thing, how can she kill Myrcella? There are two things Cersei values; her children and power(being queen). There's no way she can to take Cersei's power away, either.
Cersei loses her power in 2-3 ways; when all her children die, or Myrcella, as queen, taking all her power away from her, which she is capable of. Or a queen like Dany takes over the city at the head of her own army. So the sidekick "wife" can not be the queen
, but the "leader" should be the queen. In summary, Arianne is ineffective if faced with Cersei. Marg is even more likely to be "the queen" than Arianne, but she's not. Therefore, the queen cannot be Arianne... And when she loses everything she has, the valonqar (young brother) will kill her. Well, valonqar is either Jaime or Tyrion.
As for Tyrion, we can't see him before book 7. The situation is not different for Jaime, because the plot of Jaime in the 6th book is to finish what he started, to complete his transformation by keeping his vows. It is only possible when Jaime breaks up with Cersei that he transforms and develops character because she is poisoning him. Brienne is the key character influence for his transformation. So we're going to see a story where Jaime will find Sansa and take her north to her family(and other things), only after that he can go back to KL. Jaime has a story of his own and has no chance of completing it while he's with Cersei, Jaime didn't come for a short while to get fires for food from the river lands. For this reason, don't expect it to come and go as in the series, I think it's a big mistake.
Some readers say Cersei could have escaped to the Rock and been killed by Jaime there, but basically that's not possible either. Now when Stannis attacked, Cersei kept Payne by her side, choosing to die rather than flee. There may be two reasons for this, either Cersei cannot accept to escape or there is no possibility of escaping in case of such a siege and invasion. Either way, seems Cersei has no chance of going. After all, when Cersei's daughter dies, why would she run away? She will have lost everything. Let's pretend she escaped, why would Jaime kill her? Only if Cersei does something terrible will Jaime want to kill her, which will probably be with KL and the wildfire duo as readers have thought for years, which is a lot of FS in the books. So, the fulfillment of Cersei's prophecy of queen, children, valonqar things seems possible only in book 7, so the probability of Aegon ascending the throne seems low, at least in book 6.
I can even raise objections from Martin for those who say that Cersei will die in the 6th book. In 2015, Fantastic Forum
interviewed Martin and - on after a Cersei question- he by saying that he still has something on his mind , that her story is still going on, that there are two more books to write, "keep reading." In this case, a major blow is dealt to the theory that Aegon will take over KL. Myrcella will reign as queen, and Cersei can only become queen as long as her daughter is alive. She cannot remain "queen" after she dies, and Cersei dies when her reign ends. In my opinion, while trying to predict Aegon's story
, other factors are ignored. Now... Aegon has taken over the stormlands, great. This is okay. Some of the readers think that their next move will be KL, which is not quite right in my opinion. Of course it depends on Aegon's personality, but he's probably not such a dumb kid. What I mean is this; Dragonstone is now in Lannister hands. Even a person like Cersei strove to seize it, seeing the danger of this place being held by the enemy. Why is Dragonstone important? To the Targaryens it had symbolic value simply because it was their home's headquarters, Dragonstone means to them like what Winterfell means to the Starks, but should not that Aegon take this place for that purpose only. If Aegon does not hold his behind when he besieges KL with his army, the Lannisters come from behind and besiege them and the siege fails. So it's also important for strategy, it's kind of like a door to a KL city. Think of it as the importance of Cyprus for the neighboring countries in the Mediterranean. Owning it is strategically important. Dragonstone is the same. That's why Aegon should take it first. If they survive the storm lands, of course!
Of course, for the siege, especially to capture KL, I think more than 10 thousand men are needed. What seems to be overlooked is the fact that the Tyrels are coming to the Stormlands.
Aegon also does not want to face any siege, he will fight one-on-one battles. Of course, I don't know what will be the end of this war. The Aegon side consists of 10,000 armies and House Tyrell has 100k armies (of course i guess not bringing the whole army).
What's more, Mace Tyrell is not to be feared either, but though that one of his bannermen, Randyll Tarly, will undoubtedly be one of the best commanders in Westeros to accompany his armies.
Arianne thinks that Jon Conn knows the number is against his, yet he still believes he'll win since he chose the battle, that Jon saw some hope. But Daemon Sand also gave a reasonable response. “How many men died in the war they thought they were going to win?”
The opinions of both sides are not unfounded. Yes, numeracy by itself doesn't mean much when it comes to war, but 100,000 vs. 10,000 is a very serious imbalance, so it seems like a crazy idea at first for Aegon to believe he'll beat the Tyrell army in a field battle. Unless, of course, there is something that will turn this war in their favor and Jon Conn knows about it.
In the end two things will happen(I felt like LF. :D ); Either it will be as Daemon has said and Aegon will face his first major defeat, in which case he will probably flee from stormlands to seek find shelter (maybe dragonstone) or Arianne will be right and a variable will kick in and Aegon will be victorious. The variant is this:
I think a friend of mine said that he thought Tarly would switch sides and take half the army with him, and I can agree with that view. When you take into account Tarly's view of women, I don't think he wants to see Myrcella on the iron throne in the future, nor is he happy with Cersei's presence as queen right now. However, Tarly may be a Targaryen supporter at heart. We know there are Targaryen supporters in after all, for example House Darry was one of those supporters, though it's now a stray household, but you get what I mean. In the first book, we read that Arya witnessed the conversation between Varys and Illyrio. We saw that Varys and his friend were in some arrangements, the things these two did in the past and now, they are "variable." They've probably had their Targaryen supporters ready all this time, but who and how many of them all are, we don't know for now, but Tarly could be one of them, I'd bet on him.
However, I don't think Tarly will be able to take half of the Tyrell army, of course, because there are many lords in the Reach, and each of those soldiers are subordinate to their own lord. So no one joins Tarly for the sake of his commands. This is not how things work. Tarly can only take his own men, but we don't know how many. The Florents were the first and strongest house to join Stannis from range, and I think they had 2000 men. As far as I know, the Hightowers have the largest military numbers in the Reach. According to Sam's words, his father said that this house had 3 times as many swords as the other bannermen. In other words, the majority of the 100 thousand-man army comes from Hightower. As a result, we don't know how many soldiers are sworn to Tarly, but we can be optimistic and consider it considerable. Of course, Tarly won't be the only supporter from in the book, but we don't know who else and how much power they are. More importantly, we may not be so sure when the "change of sides" will happen. Switching sides is not an easy thing,
when a few households from the Reach switch sides, the others do not stand still. We've seen an example of this. For example, the seat of House Florent has now been given to the 2nd son of the Tyrells, and the man we would expect to be lord of Florent now is in prison. Garlan Tyrell's wife's household, both branches of Fossoway, knelt on the throne after the battle of Blackwater, with the death of some family member. Probably hard to stand up after that. Jon Fossoway is also a prisoner in KL, I think, sister to his wife, Lord Tyrell. I'm not so sure about the status of House Mullendore, the leader of the house has never been seen, but Mark Mullendore, who led the armies on his behalf, is held captive and in the dungeon. He knelt after the war, his relationship with the head of the household is unknown, but he could be his son or brother, as the house was re-connected to the throne with his kneeling. The lord of House Varner is also one of those who were captured and knelt after the war. Same with House Willum, he was caught and knelt down with his lord and sons. Meanwhile, House Willum was heavily influenced by Tad's series at the time Martin wrote asoiaf, which was created to pay homage to Tad Williams himself. As a result, changing sides is one problem, failing is another.
This is what I'm talking about, and those who kneeled to Stannis right after Renly died, probably didn't know that the Tyrels were on the side of the Lannisters, but once they made this choice, they ended up badly. This is an example for everyone.
When clandestine Targ-supporting households switch sides and send their army to Aegon, they won't be safe in range, their families won't be safe. Therefore, they will have to leave the range with the whole family, while those who remain, like the Florents, will be prisoner. This is the nature of the job, of course, but it is necessary to have the conditions to afford it. After all, just because you have x households in your heart, you won't blindly endanger your family and lands.
Currently, Aegon's position may not appear to meet these requirements. Just because Varys say it, would Targaryen supporters suddenly believe that Aegon was real? Would they wait to it proven? More importantly, do they switch sides before they are sure they will win? As for Aegon's identity, Jon Conn is undoubtedly an important factor here, a reference to one of Rhaegar's one of closest friends is valuable, but not for Doran Martell. We can assume that Doran can send troops during the war
, but that requires Arianne to confirm the identity of Aegon and Conn first, but how? If you have watched Arianne's Death
theory, Arianne is not in a position to fulfill this task. Neither the princess nor those around her have ever known Jon Conn or Aegon at all, only Doran Martell does. Possibly Arianne's obsession with handsome men, and possibly Varys and Illyrio's sweet tongue, might convince her if they arrive at that time. Still, we can't be sure. Would it be Doran even if Arianne was convinced? He will eventually wonder what convinced his daughter, and what was enough for the princess may not be enough for Doran. We can't expect Doran to be easily convinced. As readers, we expect him to be convinced… Martin has created expectations before, or , he played with expectations on the first thing that comes to a reader's mind, and then he trashed that expectation; Remember the Ned and Robb thing. The prospect of the alliance of Doran and Aegon was also the first thing that came to our minds. We don't expect Dany to be convinced (because of the dance) but we are waiting for Doran, it might be a red herring actually.
In fact, this task is completely illogical and absurd. Doran's move doesn't suit someone like him. Not even sure if Jon Conn was real, all he had to do was order him to come and prove himself. Instead, Doran sends his heir, his daughter, with nothing. We can't argue that Aegon is Targ based on his appearance, as there are many such in Lys, and Arienne saw one during the journey. Also, suppose Jon and Aegon are fake, by what logic do you send your heir to these people? These men could have your daughter captive to use against you. Another possibility is that if Arianne is caught on the road or in the middle of battle, Dorne's plot will be exposed, and for Doran it's a disaster, he never wants it exposed. So the move is unnecessarily risky. It doesn't suit Doran's cautious personality and mind.
So how does Doran's futile move serve for the story? Arianne can never truly be sure of Aegon, and it doesn't make sense for the author to prolong some of the problems that Jon Conn could have solved by coming to Dorne himself in a way that makes it hard to come to a conclusion. The owners of the theory say that Doran deliberately sent his children to death and that the heir in his heart is the third child. So it's kind of a Tarly case, but I don't think Doran is that cruel. In this case, if the theory of Arianne's death will be correct; While Quentyn's death has turned the alliance of Dorne and Dany to ash, can Arianne's death also drown the alliance between Dorne and Aegon?
Could the purpose of Arianne's senseless journey actually be to trash the alliance of Dorne and the Targaryens, like her brother? It's quite possible. While we take the alliance between Dorne and Aegon with certainty, GRRM might fail our expectation, and this would not be the first time. Already, the 20,000 Dornish army won't give Aegon a chance against Dany, especially when there are three dragons. Or against the Tyrell-Lannister alliance...
I couldn't understand why Doran accepted his young son's engagement to Myrcella. He was thinking of marrying his son to Dany, in which case Dany would be queen, his son will be king, so what good would Myrcella do? What is the logic behind this engagement? This man objected to this girl's use against her family and eventually sent her home. So we can't claim it was for anything like hostage-holding because it was never used in that position. Moreover, the engagement is still ongoing, remember; Cersei didn't want this marriage, so she wanted to kill the boy on the way. Let's go back to KL for that.
Myrcella came to KL... At some point, Tommen died, the Tyrell-Lannister alliance broke down because the Tyrells cannot be expected to support them if they have no gain. Myrcella took the throne. In this case, I see no obstacle to Myrcella's marriage to her fiancé. There must be a reason for this engagement to exist. Probably the reason is "marriage". The Martellers will be replaced by the Tyrels. The enmity between the two households will also begin to show its effect seriously here.
I don't know if Marg will still be alive when Tommen dies. Assuming she's dead they might want to marry Willas to Myrcella, this boy is still single. This is actually unusual because heirs in particular are usually married off at a young age, even Garlan is already married. Perhaps GRRM intends to marry this boy off to someone. However, Myrcella is engaged to Martell and the engagement cannot be canceled unless the betrayal is obvious. And the future queen is very fond of her fiancé, so she will not accept breaking the engagement.
Once the Tyrels are out of the alliance, Cersei will need it, as she will live on in the last two books. In any case, Cersei didn't like the Tyrels, and alliance was garbage because Tommen died... In this case, the Martellers would become the new alliance (of course, Doran will continue his plans to take revenge on the Lannisters anyway, that's another matter). Where the Martels will be kings, the Tyrels will not support; where the Tyrels will be queens, the Martels will not support. So if Marg survives, if they want to marry her off to Aegon, he might seriously consider accepting it. Doran does not support this move of this boy, who he is not even sure is his nephew. In other words, if there is a "marriage", these two houses will not come together, and without marriage it is unthinkable (the Tyrells) to support Aegon.
If Aegon doesn't want to lose his uncle's support and falls in love with Arianne and wants to marry, he'll have thrown the Tyrells away. Even if there is a Lannister-Martell marriage anyway, the Tyrells won't want to support the new Targ boy because they actually take everything they have. What do the Tyrells do if they can't find someone to back up? So neither Lannister nor Targ... In this case, can he declare independence by taking the example of the north and the iron islands?
Well, Lord Tyrell may get tired of trying to have power on the throne by using his daughter, and may decide to become the king of the range by taking an example from his surroundings (especially when he sees the north declared its independence again). Of course, this will have serious consequences, revolts come one after another because the origins of the Tyrells are a subject of criticism, no one would want to accept them as kings. It is precisely in this case that Targ supporters from range houses can pass over to Aegon. I think it's very good timing with low risk...
Of course, this would also be the final blow that would cause Westeros to fall apart. The main reason Euron attacked the oldtown is to smash Westeros and present it to Dany. Sam was saying that if the city fell, Westeros would fall part. On top of that, if the Tyrels declare independence and make themselves kings... this fragmentation will accelerate. Dany steps into a shattered Westeros. It's complete chaos. I don't know about you, but I think this kind of chaos is exactly Martin's style.
Suppose the Martell-Lannister engagement is broken, then House Tyrell can wed their heir to Myrcella. Of course, I'm not sure if Cersei would agree to a marriage again after trying so hard to get rid of this house, but we have to consider all possibilities. If the alliance with a 3rd marriage continues then Martell's Aegon support is possible, of course after he's sure it's his own nephew otherwise he will keep waiting for Dany and, Aegon with 10k he can capture dragonstone at most, not KL. This possibility seems a little hollow to me because assuming Aegon is going to fight Dany, there must be such an army force that he can fight Dany. With Dorne's 20,000 men and a few thousand men from several households, this does not seem feasible. With Tyrell strength alone, Aegon becomes numerically comparable to Dany.
Of course, if there isn't going to be a war between Aegon and Dany, then this last possibility is possible. Let's not forget that Doran doesn't get into battles he isn't sure he will win. Despite Dany's power of army and 3 dragons, would Doran want to fight her? Maybe things will develop so much that Doran won't be able to stop Dorne from fighting against Dany even if he wanted to.
I don't think Varys and Illyrio made these plans by giving Aegon just 10k armies and relying on the support of a few households. Of course, they also relied somewhat on Westeros to be torn apart, presumably because the war-weary people of Westeros would support Aegon, as Aegon would emerge as a savior in the midst of all this chaos. However, it is obvious that they are making other plans on top of the broken plans, so these two are themselves a "variable". Later they, seem to have apparently planned to put Aegon on the throne by finally marrying Aegon to Dany and joining forces, they(Varys-Illyrio) may not have had much of a variable effect.
As a result, all these are “possible possibilities” that I can predict within the framework of the variables that I can see. I would like to know your ideas too.
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